Using Data to Decode the Role of Youth Turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election
Youth voters (ages 18-44) consistently have lower turnout rates compared to older voters, often by as much as 50% relative to those 65 and older. This presents a significant challenge for Democrats, as the youth voter population is twice as large as the 65+ population, yet their actual turnout lags considerably behind. The 2024 presidential election is just around the corner, and the polls indicate a tight race. Given the uncertainty in polling and the likely underrepresentation of Democratic support, sensitivity analysis is one of the best tools for evaluating potential election outcomes.